Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
广告测量中基于实验的预测增量效应
Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation for Ad Measurement
摘要
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide the most credible estimates of advertising incrementality but are difficult to scale. We propose Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation (PIE), which reframes ad measurement as a campaign-level prediction problem. PIE uses a sample of RCTs to learn a mapping from campaign features to causal effects, then applies it to campaigns not run as RCTs. Because the RCTs identify the causal effects, PIE can incorporate post-determined features—campaign-level aggregates such as test-group outcomes, exposure rates, and last-click conversions, computed after campaign completion. These metrics reflect the consumer behaviors that generate treatment effects, so they carry predictive information about incrementality, even though they would be invalid controls in a causal model. Using 2,226 Meta ad experiments, PIE achieves an out-of-sample [Formula: see text] for incremental conversions per dollar, compared with [Formula: see text] for industry-standard seven-day last-click attribution. In a decision-making framework, PIE disagrees with RCT-based decisions in only 8%–12% of campaigns, compared with 12%–20% for last-click attribution. We conclude that PIE can help scale causal measurement from a limited number of RCTs to a large set of nonexperimental campaigns. This paper was accepted by Raphael Thomadsen, marketing. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01108 .
中文摘要
随机对照试验（RCTs）能提供关于广告增量效应最可信的估计，但难以规模化。我们提出“通过实验预测增量效应”（Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation, PIE），将广告测量重新界定为一个活动层面的预测问题。PIE利用一组RCT样本学习从活动特征到因果效应的映射，再将其应用于未作为RCT运行的活动。由于RCT识别因果效应，PIE可以纳入事后决定特征——即在活动结束后计算的活动层面汇总指标，如测试组结果、曝光率和末次点击转化。这些指标反映了产生处理效应的消费者行为，因此即使它们作为因果模型中的控制变量无效，也仍携带关于增量效应的预测信息。使用2,226个Meta广告实验，PIE在每美元增量转化上取得了样本外[公式：见正文]的表现，而行业标准的七日末次点击归因为[公式：见正文]。在决策框架中，PIE仅在8%–12%的活动中与基于RCT的决策不一致，而末次点击归因则为12%–20%。我们得出结论：PIE有助于将因果测量从有限数量的RCT扩展到大量非实验活动。本文由Raphael Thomadsen（营销学）接收。补充材料：在线附录和数据文件可在https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01108获取。