Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
价格发现与远距离市场整合：来自民国时期中国棉纱交易所的证据
Price discovery and long-distance market integration: Evidence from the Republican Chinese Cotton Goods Exchange
摘要
Market integration is vital for economic development; its determinants have been extensively documented in the literature. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of economic organizations. This paper seeks to fill this gap by investigating the role of futures exchanges in Republican China. Using manually collected primary data, we employ a continuous difference-in-differences approach to analyze the impact of the Chinese Cotton Goods Exchange on long-distance market integration. We find that, following the exchange's establishment in 1921, geographically distant cities experienced a stronger increase in market integration with Shanghai than nearby cities. Regarding the underlying mechanism, we show that the price-discovery function of the futures exchange promoted long-distance market integration by centralizing markets and reducing price uncertainty.
中文摘要
市场整合对经济发展至关重要，其决定因素已在文献中得到广泛记载。然而，经济组织的作用相对较少受到关注。本文旨在通过研究民国时期期货交易所的角色来填补这一空白。利用手工收集的一手数据，我们采用连续双重差分法分析中国棉业交易所对长距离市场整合的影响。研究发现，自1921年该交易所成立后，地理上相距较远的城市与上海之间的市场整合程度增强幅度大于邻近城市。关于内在机制，我们表明期货交易所的价格发现功能通过集中市场和降低价格不确定性促进了长距离市场整合。