Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
威权体制下生育鼓励政策的反噬效应
Pronatalist Policies’ Backlash in Authoritarian Regimes
摘要
European fascist regimes have attached great importance to nationalistic families and designed policies to perpetuate them. Most offered policy packages with interest-free loans repayable through childbirth, along with allowances and tax deductions for large families. Using a difference-in-difference approach and Nazi Germany as a case study, we show that these policies may have counterproductive effects due to negative selection mechanisms in the marriage market. The excessive pressure to marry exerted on singles results in lower quality, ultimately less fertile, and more fragile unions. This finding is important as the main European far-right parties today propose reinstating these policy packages.
中文摘要
欧洲法西斯政权高度重视民族主义家庭，并制定了旨在延续这些家庭的政策。多数政权提供了一揽子政策，包括通过生育偿还的无息贷款，以及对大家庭的补贴和税收减免。本文以纳粹德国为案例，采用双重差分法研究发现，由于婚姻市场中的负向选择机制，这些政策可能产生适得其反的效果。对单身者施加的过度婚姻压力导致婚姻质量下降，最终形成生育率更低、关系更脆弱的结合。这一发现具有重要意义，因为当今欧洲主要极右翼政党正提议重新推行此类政策组合。