Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
移民冲击在企业间贸易网络中的传播
Propagation of Immigration Shocks through Firm-to-Firm Trade Networks,
摘要
This paper investigates the extent to which an immigration shock to a region propagates through supply chains. Using the unexpected arrival of Syrian refugees, who are densely concentrated in border regions of Turkey, we estimate how firms across the country are affected in terms of sales, employment, and wages. We also examine the impact of the shock on interprovincial trade, focusing on trade volume and network formation. The results reveal positive spillover effects of immigration for firms with pre-existing links to Syrian refugee-hosting regions through upstream and downstream supply chain connections. Furthermore, we find evidence that the shock expands inter-provincial trade and contributes to the formation of new firm-to-firm linkages between provinces. Finally, we show that traditional spatial approaches that compare regions with differing migration rates may conflate cross-province propagation with the direct effect of migrants; in our setting, this conflation overstates direct effects on sales and employment at both the firm and regional levels of aggregation and masks a negative direct wage effect at the firm level.
中文摘要
本文考察了某一地区的移民冲击通过供应链传导的程度。利用叙利亚难民意外涌入且高度集中于土耳其边境地区这一事实，我们估计了全国范围内企业在销售额、就业和工资方面受到的影响。我们还考察了该冲击对省际贸易的影响，重点关注贸易量和网络形成。结果表明，对于与接收叙利亚难民地区通过上游和下游供应链联系已有既有联系的企业而言，移民产生了正向溢出效应。此外，我们发现有证据表明，该冲击扩大了省际贸易，并促进了各省之间新的企业间联系的形成。最后，我们表明，比较具有不同移民率的地区的传统空间方法，可能会将跨省传导与移民的直接影响混为一谈；在我们的情境中，这种混淆高估了在企业层面和区域层面聚合上对销售额和就业的直接影响，并掩盖了企业层面负向的直接工资效应。