Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
1950年以来爱尔兰季度GDP
Quarterly GDP for Ireland since 1950
摘要
We construct estimates of quarterly GDP (and GNP) for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our estimates exploit the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of turning points in the Irish economy than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence.
中文摘要
我们构建了自1950年起爱尔兰季度GDP（及GNP）的估算序列，并与1995年后的官方数据相衔接，采用了一种新颖的因子增强型Chow-Lin插值方法。与唯一的替代序列（OECD，2025）相比，我们的估算充分利用了大量官方季度经济数据的变动信息，且与当代报告大体一致。该序列使我们能够比以往更细致地识别爱尔兰经济的转折点。1950年代和1980年代的季度收缩频率及幅度远超其他年代，导致平均增长率较低。相比之下，1990年代被确认为增长加快和快速趋同的决定性时期。