Econ Papers Daily / 工作论文
评级、债务与赤字：一项探索
Ratings, Debt, and Deficits: An Exploration
摘要
We look at the effects of debt and primary fiscal balances on sovereign credit ratings through the lens of a simple model. We find that the ratings differ from the implications of the model in three important ways. They give much more weight to debt relative to forecast primary balances. They understate the effects of the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate. They give a very large role to country effects. For the same level of debt and forecast primary balances, they imply extremely different ratings across countries, and imply extremely different levels of debt needed to reach a given rating.
中文摘要
我们通过一个简单模型的视角，考察债务和基本财政余额对主权信用评级的影响。我们发现，评级在三个重要方面与模型的含义不同。它们相对于预测的基本财政余额，给予债务大得多的权重。它们低估了利率与增长率之间差异的影响。它们赋予国家效应非常大的作用。对于相同的债务水平和预测基本财政余额，它们意味着各国之间的评级差异极大，并且意味着达到给定评级所需的债务水平差异极大。