Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
恢复主观概率分布：一种贝叶斯方法
Recovering subjective probability distributions: a Bayesian approach
摘要
An individual reports subjective beliefs over continuous events using a proper scoring rule, such as the Quadratic Scoring Rule. Under mild additional assumptions, it is known that these reports reflect latent subjective beliefs if the individual is risk neutral. We demonstrate how to fully recover latent subjective beliefs if the individual is known to distort probabilities into decision weights using Rank Dependent Utility theory, and generalize all results for the complete class of proper scoring rules. As an immediate corollary, we can then exactly recover latent subjective beliefs using Expected Utility Theory. Using Bayesian econometric methods, we demonstrate how to recover belief distributions for individuals, and illustrate these results by recovering belief distributions about the “competitiveness” of individuals and the addictiveness of smoking. These results significantly widen the domain of applicability of proper scoring rules for eliciting latent subjective belief distributions.
中文摘要
个体使用适当的评分规则（如二次评分规则）对连续事件报告主观信念。在温和的附加假设下，已知若个体是风险中性的，这些报告反映潜在的主观信念。我们展示了在已知个体依据秩依效用理论将概率扭曲为决策权重时，如何完全恢复潜在主观信念，并将所有结果推广至适当评分规则的完整类。作为一个直接推论，我们随后可以使用期望效用理论精确恢复潜在主观信念。运用贝叶斯计量经济学方法，我们展示了如何恢复个体的信念分布，并通过恢复关于个体“竞争力”和吸烟成瘾性的信念分布来说明这些结果。这些结果显著拓宽了适当评分规则在引出潜在主观信念分布方面的适用范围。