新兴经济体土地利用冲突的区域异质性：来自越南的证据

摘要

The sustainable development of land resources in emerging economies is integral to global sustainability and has direct implications for its overall trajectory. Amid ongoing shifts in the global geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, as well as accelerating cross-border industrial relocation, tensions between built-up land expansion and ecological conservation in emerging economies have become increasingly pronounced. However, relatively little research has examined the regional heterogeneity of land use conflicts in emerging economies or the interactions among their drivers. Drawing on a long-term land use dataset for Vietnam spanning 1985–2020, this study employs a land use conflict assessment model, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The analysis characterizes regional heterogeneity in land use conflicts and examines the nonlinear relationships, threshold effects, and interactive associations between these conflicts and their drivers. The results reveal that (1) land use conflicts in Vietnam exhibit pronounced north–south heterogeneity in both their spatial patterns and underlying drivers. Ecologically sensitive areas and economically advantaged regions constitute the principal areas where land use conflicts are particularly pronounced. (2) Among the drivers examined, place-specific drivers were generally more influential. Population density, the area of production space, terrain fragmentation, industrial agglomeration, and market access emerged as the principal drivers. These drivers exhibited pronounced nonlinear relationships with land use conflict, while their associated threshold ranges generally widened. Market access and land use rights showed inverted S-shaped relationships with land use conflict, whereas industrial agglomeration and informal regulation showed inverted U-shaped relationships. Although drought ranked relatively low in overall importance, it interacted strongly with terrain fragmentation, industrial agglomeration, land yield, and population density in shaping land use conflict. (3) Across the simulated scenarios, the sustainable development scenario, which accommodates both economic development and ecological conservation, emerges as a viable pathway for alleviating land use conflicts. These findings deepen understanding of land-resource use and potential tensions in Vietnam, thereby providing an evidence base for strategies to manage land use conflicts and advance sustainable urban development.