Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
难以减排交通运输的可再生燃料：探究生物质可用性与可变可再生能源潜力的影响
Renewable fuels for hard-to-abate transportation: Exploring the impact of biomass availability and variable renewable potentials
摘要
Decarbonising the hard-to-abate maritime and aviation transport sectors will be challenging. Alternative renewable fuels, such as biofuels and E-fuels, show promising potential for substituting traditional fossil fuels, but carry challenges regarding the expansion of variable renewable energy (VRE) and the availability of sustainable biomass. This study assesses these challenges and regional impacts using a comprehensive sector-coupled energy system modelling framework applied to Europe. Under high biomass availability, a documented substitution effect allows the share of E-kerosene and biokerosene to shift with VRE accessibility, whereas this flexibility declines under biomass scarcity. These differences are reflected in fuel costs: aviation fuel prices are more sensitive to biomass scarcity, while maritime fuel prices are more sensitive to VRE restrictions. Regional resource availability reshapes renewable fuel production and trade. Under the modelling assumptions, accessible VRE resources favour E-fuel supply-chains from Spain, while lower VRE accessibility increases the role of biomass-rich countries, including Germany and Poland, as exporters. Constrained VRE deployment results in increased infrastructure needs, lowers average renewable capacity factors, and raises total system costs by up to 9%. Finally, increasing scarcity increases the importance of carbon management. Biomass is prioritised for fuel production and industrial applications coupled with carbon capture, while direct air capture and carbon reuse become increasingly important for meeting fuel demand. These results highlight the need for coordinated policies on biomass utilisation, VRE deployment, carbon management, and infrastructure planning to achieve cost-efficient decarbonisation of Europe's hard-to-abate transport sectors.
中文摘要
难以减排的海运和航空运输部门脱碳将颇具挑战性。生物燃料和电制燃料等替代可再生燃料展现出替代传统化石燃料的潜力，但在可变可再生能源（VRE）扩张和可持续生物质可用性方面面临挑战。本研究采用一个综合的部门耦合能源系统建模框架应用于欧洲，评估这些挑战及区域影响。在生物质高可用性下，一种有文献记载的替代效应使得电制煤油和生物煤油的比例可随VRE可及性变化而转移，而在生物质稀缺下这种灵活性下降。这些差异反映在燃料成本上：航空燃料价格对生物质稀缺更为敏感，而海运燃料价格对VRE限制更为敏感。区域资源可用性重塑可再生燃料生产和贸易。在建模假设下，可及的VRE资源有利于来自西班牙的电制燃料供应链，而较低的VRE可及性则增强了包括德国和波兰在内的生物质丰富国家作为出口国的作用。受限的VRE部署导致基础设施需求增加，降低平均可再生容量系数，并使系统总成本增加高达9%。最后，日益加剧的稀缺性提高了碳管理的重要性。生物质被优先用于燃料生产及与碳捕集相结合的工业应用，而直接空气捕集和碳再利用对于满足燃料需求变得日益重要。这些结果凸显了在生物质利用、VRE部署、碳管理和基础设施规划方面采取协调政策的必要性，以实现欧洲难以减排运输部门的经济高效脱碳。