Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
检索失败与消费平滑：关于季节性贫困的实地实验
Retrieval Failures and Consumption Smoothing: A Field Experiment on Seasonal Poverty*
摘要
People may fail to recall and use information they already know when making decisions. We empirically investigate whether such “retrieval failures” distort consumption-smoothing behavior among Zambian farmers, who derive their income from one annual harvest and spend it over the course of the year. We document that individuals underestimate upcoming spending by 50%, creating scope for undersaving. To improve recall, we randomize an intervention that prompts people to think through their future expenses associatively in categories—without providing any external information or guidance. Treated individuals increase “remembered” expenses by 36%–60%; as predicted by the memory literature, effects are concentrated among small, irregular, and stochastic items. Immediate spending drops and, six weeks after the intervention, treated households hold 15% higher savings. They subsequently enter the hungry season—the final months of the year when consumption typically declines sharply—with one additional month of savings, leading to a flatter spending profile over the year. Households use the increased savings to self-finance additional farm investment, resulting in a 9% increase in the next year’s crop revenue. We replicate the intervention’s effect on beliefs among low-income Americans, suggesting that retrieval failures generalize across settings and populations.
中文摘要
人们在决策时可能无法回忆和利用自己已经掌握的信息。我们实证研究这种“提取失败”是否会扭曲赞比亚农民的消费平滑行为，他们的收入来自每年一次收成，并在一年中逐步支出。我们记录到，个体低估了即将发生的支出，幅度达50%，从而为储蓄不足创造了空间。为改善回忆，我们随机实施了一项干预，促使人们以分类联想的方式思考未来支出——不提供任何外部信息或指导。受处理个体将“被记住的”支出提高了36%–60%；正如记忆文献所预测的那样，效应集中在金额小、不规律且随机的项目上。即时支出下降，并且在干预六周后，受处理家庭持有的储蓄高出15%。随后，他们进入饥饿季节——一年中消费通常大幅下降的最后几个月——时多拥有相当于一个月的储蓄，从而使全年支出曲线更加平滑。家庭利用增加的储蓄为额外的农业投资自筹资金，导致下一年作物收入增加9%。我们在低收入美国人中复现了该干预对信念的影响，表明提取失败在不同环境和人群中具有普遍性。