Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
回顾：美元短缺大辩论
Retrospectives: The Great Dollar-Shortage Debate
摘要
The dollar shortage debate—Paul Samuelson called it “the big open question of our time”—dominated international macroeconomics in the 15 years following the end of World War II. There were two main views regarding its cause: financial frictions that limited capital flows to Western Europe (Kindleberger); and overvalued fixed exchange rates versus the US dollar (Friedman). According to Kindleberger the dollar shortage was attenuated by two real factors that contributed to current account deficits: a large technological gap between the United States and Europe; and European impatience to improve living standards. Kindleberger believed that the current account deficit would prove chronic because of the persistence of the productivity gap, a view that was challenged by Bloomfield who argued that it would dissipate through income growth in Europe. We argue that Kindelberger’s analytical framework is closely connected to the modern intertemporal approach to current account determination; and, also, that the international reserve function of the US dollar—the Triffin dilemma—did not play a role in the dollar shortage.
中文摘要
美元短缺的争论——保罗·萨缪尔森称之为“我们时代悬而未决的重大问题”——在二战结束后的15年间主导了国际宏观经济学领域。关于其成因存在两种主要观点：一是限制资本流向西欧的金融摩擦（金德尔伯格）；二是相对于美元被高估的固定汇率（弗里德曼）。金德尔伯格认为，美元短缺因两个导致经常账户赤字的实际因素而减弱：美国与欧洲之间巨大的技术差距；以及欧洲改善生活水平的迫切需求。金德尔伯格认为，由于生产率差距的持续性，经常账户赤字将被证明是长期性的，这一观点遭到布卢姆菲尔德的质疑，后者认为该赤字将随着欧洲收入增长而消散。我们论证：金德尔伯格的分析框架与现代跨期经常账户决定理论密切相关；同时，美元的国际储备功能——特里芬难题——在美元短缺中并未发挥作用。