重新审视电气化与生育率之间的联系：来自20世纪早期美国的证据

摘要

This paper presents empirical and theoretical evidence on the link between the decline in US fertility from 1900 to 1940 and the expansion of electricity. Using data on early electrification efforts, I identify two channels connecting electrification and fertility: time-saving household appliances, which reduced child-rearing demands, and rising female wages, which increased the opportunity cost of childcare. A calibrated quantitative model incorporating both channels shows that electrification accounts for 3.1% of the fertility decline in 1900–1940. This modest effect reflects the offsetting nature of the two channels, and the broader labor market conditions of the era, which concentrated female labor force participation among young unmarried women and therefore limited the scope for electrification to alter fertility behavior.