Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
重新审视土耳其的税收-支出关系：来自时变格兰杰因果关系的证据
Revisiting the tax-spend nexus in Türkiye: evidence from time-varying Granger causality
摘要
Studies of the revenue-expenditure nexus support each of its four hypotheses, as does the Turkish evidence. Most assume a time-invariant causal link, which is implausible for an economy exposed to frequent macroeconomic and policy shocks. This study examines changes in the direction of causality between real tax revenues and non-interest expenditures, applying the lag-augmented recursive evolving Granger causality test to monthly Turkish general budget data over 2006M1 to 2026M4. The results reveal repeated shifts: institutional separation until 2015, interrupted by spend-and-tax in 2011 and 2012, tax-and-spend from 2015, fiscal synchronization in 2017 and 2018, spend-and-tax during the 2019 slowdown, separation during the pandemic, tax-and-spend from mid-2021 and fiscal synchronization from early 2022 onward. These episodes coincide with phases of fiscal policy, from the electoral cycles and tax amnesties of the mid-2010s to the post-earthquake consolidation. Causality from revenue to expenditure in the mid-2010s and the final synchronization survive conditioning on inflation, industrial production and the exchange rate, whereas controlling for activity largely removes the 2017–2018 synchronization. The question of which side of the budget leads therefore has no time-invariant answer in Türkiye, and the answerable question is when each side leads.
中文摘要
关于财政收入与支出关系的各项研究支持其四种假说，土耳其的证据亦不例外。多数研究假定存在时不变的因果联系，而对于一个频繁遭受宏观经济与政策冲击的经济体而言，这一假定并不合理。本研究考察实际税收收入与非利息支出之间因果方向的变动，将滞后增广递归演化格兰杰因果检验应用于2006年1月至2026年4月的土耳其月度一般预算数据。结果揭示了反复出现的转变：2015年之前为制度性分离，2011年和2012年被“先支出后税收”打断，2015年起为“先税收后支出”，2017年和2018年为财政同步，2019年经济放缓期间为“先支出后税收”，疫情期间为分离，2021年中期起为“先税收后支出”，2022年初起为财政同步。这些阶段与财政政策的各个时期相吻合，从2010年代中期的选举周期和税收特赦到地震后的整顿。2010年代中期的收入对支出的因果性以及最终的同步性在控制通胀、工业生产和汇率后依然成立，而控制经济活动则基本消除了2017—2018年的同步性。因此，在土耳其，预算的哪一侧起主导作用这一问题没有时不变的答案，可回答的问题是每一侧何时起主导作用。