Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
巴西农村移民与城市非正规性：实证证据
Rural Migrants and Urban Informality: Evidence From Brazil
摘要
This paper studies the economic effects of rural‐urban migration on Brazilian cities. Using a shift‐share IV design, we show that, over a decade, drought‐induced immigration reduces informality, has no effect on unemployment, and increases the number of formal firms and jobs. Downward formal wage adjustments play a key role, as these long‐run effects are weaker in regions with stronger wage rigidity. In the short run, when wage rigidity is strongest, we replicate the informality‐increasing effects documented in the literature. We develop and estimate a model of firm dynamics and informality that rationalizes these results. The counterfactuals reveal that, in the short run, the informal sector absorbs the expanding labor force and acts as a “stepping‐stone” to formality for firms and workers. In the long run, however, it reduces the aggregate benefits from immigration by allowing the least productive firms to survive.
中文摘要
本文研究了农村向城市迁移对巴西城市的经济效应。利用shift-share IV设计，我们表明，在十年间，干旱引发的移民降低了非正规性，对失业率无影响，并增加了正规企业和就业岗位的数量。下行正规工资调整在此过程中发挥关键作用，因为这些长期效应在工资刚性较强的地区较弱。在短期内，当工资刚性最强时，我们复现了文献中记载的非正规性增强效应。我们构建并估计了一个企业动态与非正规性模型，以合理解释这些结果。反事实分析揭示，在短期内，非正规部门吸收了扩张的劳动力，并作为企业和工人迈向正规化的“踏脚石”。然而，从长期来看，它通过允许效率最低的企业存活，减少了移民带来的总体收益。