Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
产业政策实施的规模与空间：来自埃塞俄比亚城市的地理空间证据
Scale and space in industrial policy implementation: Geospatial evidence from urban Ethiopia
摘要
Industrial policy in Africa has regained prominence, yet many registered manufacturing investments do not progress to production. This study examines the spatial patterning and correlates of implementation using a field-verified geospatial census of 2277 manufacturing projects in Shaggar City, Ethiopia. Projects were classified into five ordered implementation categories: Not Implemented, Abandoned, Under Construction, Construction Completed, and Operational. Ordered logistic regression was used to examine associations with network distance from Addis Ababa's central business district (CBD), firm size, industrial subsector, and distance to former town centers. In the primary specification, greater distance from the CBD was negatively associated in the primary ordinal specification with lower cumulative odds of being in a higher implementation category (OR = 0.921, 95% CI: 0.901–0.942, p < 0.001). The distance association was nonlinear in supplementary specifications, although its precise form varied across model formulations. Residual diagnostics, however, indicated substantial spatial autocorrelation across all four cumulative thresholds (Moran's I, p < 0.001), limiting the extent to which conventional model-based uncertainty can be interpreted as spatially independent inference. Distance to former town centers showed evidence of stage-specific association, concentrated at earlier implementation transitions. Firm size was also associated with implementation status in the primary ordinal model, with large projects having lower cumulative odds than small projects; this association weakened after adjustment for project timing and was directionally reversed in a binary multilevel sensitivity model. The latter model accounted for sub-city clustering but produced a non-positive-definite Hessian and is therefore treated as indicative rather than confirmatory. Missing firm-size information was spatially patterned, with missing records more common near the metropolitan core and among projects with higher operational rates. These findings show that manufacturing implementation is a spatially structured, multi-stage process and that observed associations depend on how implementation stage, project timing, missing information, and spatial dependence are handled. The study highlights the value of field-verified project-level data for distinguishing registered investment from actual implementation and for identifying where different stages of the implementation process may require closer monitoring and support.
中文摘要
非洲的产业政策重新受到重视，但许多已登记制造业投资并未推进到生产阶段。本研究利用对埃塞俄比亚沙加尔市2277个制造业项目进行实地核验的地理空间普查，考察了实施的空间格局及其相关因素。项目被划分为五个有序实施类别：未实施、已废弃、在建、建设完成和运营。采用有序逻辑回归考察其与距亚的斯亚贝巴中央商务区（CBD）的网络距离、企业规模、工业子行业以及距前城镇中心距离之间的关联。在主设定中，在主要有序设定下，距CBD越远与处于更高实施类别的累积几率越低呈负相关（OR = 0.921，95% CI：0.901–0.942，p < 0.001）。在补充设定中，距离关联呈非线性，尽管其具体形式因模型设定而异。然而，残差诊断表明，在所有四个累积阈值上均存在显著空间自相关（Moran's I，p < 0.001），这限制了将传统基于模型的不确定性解释为空间独立推断的程度。距前城镇中心的距离显示出阶段特异性关联的证据，主要集中在较早的实施转换阶段。在主要有序模型中，企业规模也与实施状态相关，大型项目比小型项目具有更低的累积几率；在调整项目时间后，这一关联减弱，并在二元多层敏感性模型中方向反转。后一模型考虑了子城市聚类，但产生了非正定Hessian矩阵，因此被视为指示性而非确证性结果。缺失的企业规模信息具有空间模式，缺失记录在大都市核心附近以及运营率较高的项目中更为常见。这些发现表明，制造业实施是一个空间结构化的多阶段过程，且观察到的关联取决于如何处理实施阶段、项目时间、缺失信息和空间依赖。本研究凸显了实地核验的项目层面数据在区分已登记投资与实际实施，以及识别实施过程不同阶段可能需要在哪些方面加强监测和支持方面的价值。