Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
哥斯达黎加生态系统服务付费与森林碳融资的情景评估
Scenario-based assessment of payment for ecosystem services and forest carbon finance in Costa Rica
摘要
National payment for ecosystem services programs and voluntary carbon standards differ substantially in their data structures, accounting rules, and institutional objectives, limiting direct comparison. This study develops a matched-baseline framework to compare Costa Rica’s Payments for Environmental Services program (PES), the Gold Standard for the Global Goals (GS4GG), and Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard (VCS/VERRA) over 2024–2060. The framework combines ecological-support reconstruction, point-based PSA diagnostics, common annual quantities, explicit price and selected-fee cases, present-value accounting, and conditional price-level simulation. The primary analysis applies 1000,000 Mg CO₂e yr⁻¹ identically to all pathways, while the secondary analysis applies the same harmonized Costa Rica CO₂-support quantity. Under Case A, common quantities, a common price of USD 50 Mg CO₂e⁻¹ , and no fees produced identical cumulative fee-adjusted revenue of USD 1.850 billion. Under Case B, selected fees reduced this value to USD 1.839 billion for GS4GG and USD 1.840 billion for VCS/VERRA, while PES remained unchanged. Cases C and D generated larger differences because pathway-specific price trajectories were introduced as structural sensitivities. Conditional simulations using 10,000 mean-preserving lognormal price draws showed that wider price dispersion increased P10–P90 interval widths, while quantities, fees, and discounting remained deterministic. Ecological and PSA indicators were retained as contextual support rather than certified carbon quantities. The framework provides a transferable approach for separating quantity, price, selected-fee, discounting, and conditional price-level effects when heterogeneous forest-carbon finance pathways cannot be directly compared.
中文摘要
国家生态系统服务付费项目与自愿碳标准在数据架构、核算规则和制度目标上存在显著差异，限制了直接比较。本研究构建了一个匹配基线框架，用于比较哥斯达黎加环境服务付费项目（PES）、全球目标黄金标准（GS4GG）以及Verra的核证碳标准（VCS/VERRA）在2024—2060年期间的表现。该框架整合了生态支持重建、基于点位的PSA诊断、共同年度数量、明确价格与选定费用情形、现值核算以及条件价格水平模拟。主分析对所有路径统一应用1,000,000 Mg CO₂e yr⁻¹，次分析则应用同一协调后的哥斯达黎加CO₂支持量。在情形A下，共同数量、50美元 Mg CO₂e⁻¹的共同价格且无费用时，产生了相同的累计费用调整后收入18.50亿美元。在情形B下，选定费用使该值降至GS4GG的18.39亿美元和VCS/VERRA的18.40亿美元，而PES保持不变。情形C和D产生了更大差异，因为引入了路径特定价格轨迹作为结构性敏感性。使用10,000次均值保持对数正态价格抽取的条件模拟显示，更宽的价格离散度增大了P10–P90区间宽度，而数量、费用和折现仍保持确定性。生态指标和PSA指标被保留为背景支持，而非经认证的碳数量。该框架提供了一种可迁移的方法，用于在异质性森林碳融资路径无法直接比较时，分离数量、价格、选定费用、折现和条件价格水平效应。