Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
照亮统计黑暗时代：美国内战前邮政活动研究
Shining Light on a Statistical Dark Age: Postal Activity in Antebellum America
摘要
American economic historians generally believe that U.S. modern economic growth began before 1840, was broadly based, and the acceleration was gradual. These claims are treated as conjectures rather than solid conclusions because the census did not publish good economic data before 1840. But the earlier period was not a “statistical dark age,” as sometimes asserted. After 1817, systematic statistics on postal activity were available at the local level at high frequencies. These data shed light on the timing and sources of the onset of modern economic growth, the patterns of regional development, and the spread of a culture of communication.
中文摘要
美国经济史学家普遍认为，美国现代经济增长始于1840年之前，基础广泛且增速平缓。这些论断被视为推测而非确凿结论，因为1840年之前的人口普查并未发布可靠的经济数据。但早期阶段并非如某些观点所称的"统计黑暗时代"。1817年后，地方层面可获得高频次、系统性的邮政活动统计数据。这些数据揭示了现代经济增长的起始时间与驱动因素、区域发展模式以及通信文化的传播特征。