Social conflicts and conflict management capacity for global energy transition: a cross-national analysis

摘要

This study examines cross-country differences in the diffusion of renewable energy technologies (RET) by shifting the focus from traditional economic and technological explanations to the role of socio-political dynamics. Drawing on panel data from 107 countries from 2000 to 2023, the analysis combines Chow’s technology diffusion model with dynamic panel system GMM estimation to evaluate how socio-political conflict and a country’s conflict management capacity influence RET diffusion. The findings indicate that RET diffusion is slower in countries with strong entrenched interests in conventional energy sectors and pronounced economic or ideological divisions. Conversely, countries with greater conflict resolution capacities – such as high levels of social capital and effective governance – experience faster RET diffusion. These findings are further supported by analyses of eight composite social conflict indices, which capture aspects of vested interests, conflict intensity, and conflict-resolution strength, and the results are robust to an alternative measure of diffusion and to the exclusion of influential countries. Estimates for control variables such as electricity prices and carbon pricing are consistent with previous findings. Overall, our study underscores the critical role of socio-political factors in shaping the speed and success of national energy transitions.