Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
策略不确定性下的社交距离：策略老练度在COVID-19疫情中的作用
Social distancing under strategic uncertainty: The role of strategic sophistication in the COVID-19 pandemic
摘要
This study examines how individuals’ strategic sophistication shapes social distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, when distancing was a costly protective decision under two sources of risk: the private risk of infection and strategic uncertainty about whether others would comply. We develop a weakest-link public goods game with private costs of social distancing, in which agents differ in their level- k depth of reasoning about others. The model predicts that the probability of distancing rises with the level- k type when baseline compliance is low. We test this prediction using large-scale, nationally representative survey data that include incentivized experiments to measure participants’ level- k types. We find that a one-level increase in level- k lowers the probability of leaving home daily by 1.6 percentage points in Singapore and is associated with a 3.4 percentage-point lower probability of maintaining or increasing outdoor activity in South Korea.
中文摘要
本研究考察在COVID-19疫情早期阶段，个体的策略复杂度如何影响社交距离行为。当时，保持距离是一项代价高昂的保护性决策，面临两类风险：私人感染风险，以及关于他人是否会遵守的策略不确定性。我们构建了一个具有私人社交距离成本的最弱环节公共品博弈，其中个体在关于他人推理的k级深度上存在差异。模型预测，当基线遵守水平较低时，保持距离的概率随k级类型升高而上升。我们使用大规模、具有全国代表性的调查数据检验这一预测，数据中包含激励实验以测量参与者的k级类型。我们发现，在新加坡，k级每提高一级，每日离家概率降低1.6个百分点；在韩国，这与维持或增加户外活动的概率降低3.4个百分点相关。