Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
尼日利亚北部气候极端事件、粮食价格波动与冲突的空间共现：对地理精准定位的启示
Spatial Co‐Occurrence of Climate Extremes, Food Price Volatility, and Conflicts in Northern Nigeria: Implications for Geotargeting
摘要
Climate extremes and conflict risks may co‐occur in the same regions, particularly where agrifood systems are fragile, exposing vulnerable communities to multiple shocks. However, the extent to which these shocks co‐occur depends on local contextual factors. To inform the prioritization of interventions aimed at mitigating compound risks and strengthening agrifood system resilience, this paper examines where, and to what extent, climate extremes, food price volatility, and conflict events overlap, in Northern Nigeria, a region characterized by a high concentration of major agricultural markets and sufficiently rich data to support long‐panel analysis across multiple commodities. Using data from 52 retail agricultural markets between 2002 and 2023, we estimate 9680 local regressions that permutate over a breadth of variables and their combinations. In doing so, we relax the constraint on co‐occurrence allowing the measure to vary across locations to capture local specificity. Results reveal significant co‐occurrences of climate extremes (especially drought), food price volatility (especially in locally important commodities), and increased intensity of conflict in the study area. In specific hotspots, the estimated intensity of co‐occurrence is up to five times higher than in other locations, indicating a substantial within‐country heterogeneity in exposure to compound risks. Our findings suggest the need for localized evidence to guide the targeting of interventions and to identify priority locations for investigating the root cause of vulnerability to compound risks.
中文摘要
气候极端事件与冲突风险可能在同一地区同时发生，尤其是在农业粮食系统脆弱的区域，使本已脆弱的社区面临多重冲击。然而，这些冲击同时发生的程度取决于当地的情境因素。为帮助确定旨在缓解复合风险、增强农业粮食系统韧性的干预措施的优先顺序，本文考察了尼日利亚北部——一个以主要农产品市场高度集中、且拥有足够丰富的数据支持多种商品长期面板分析为特征的地区——气候极端事件、粮食价格波动和冲突事件在何处以及何种程度上发生重叠。利用2002年至2023年间52个零售农产品市场的数据，我们估计了9680个局部回归模型，这些模型对多种变量及其组合进行置换。通过这一方法，我们放宽了同时发生的约束条件，使度量随地点变化以捕捉地方特异性。结果显示，研究区域内气候极端事件（尤其是干旱）、粮食价格波动（尤其是当地重要商品）与冲突强度增加之间存在显著的同时发生现象。在特定热点区域，估计的同时发生强度比其他地区高出多达五倍，表明复合风险暴露在国家内部存在显著的异质性。我们的研究结果表明，需要基于地方层面的证据来指导干预措施的精准定位，并识别优先调查复合风险脆弱性根源的地点。