Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
土地整理后土地价值潜力的空间结构：基于空间计量模型的研究
Spatial structure of land value potential after land consolidation using spatial econometric modelling
摘要
Land consolidation (LC) is a widely adopted land management instrument for improving agricultural efficiency through parcel restructuring and reducing land fragmentation. However, how LC reshapes the spatial distribution of land value remains insufficiently understood. This study investigates the spatial determinants of post-consolidation land value potential (LVP) using parcel-level data from an agricultural LC project in Türkiye. The analysis examines the effects of changes in parcel compactness (ΔCI), fragmentation, and pre-consolidation LVP within a spatial econometric framework. The average LVP increased from 0.491 before LC to 0.737 after LC, representing an improvement of approximately 50%. OLS residuals exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.198, p < 0.001), confirming that conventional regression was inadequate. Model comparison identified the Spatial Error Model (SEM) as the most appropriate specification (AIC=-510.51), indicating that post-consolidation LVP is primarily influenced by spatially structured contextual factors rather than direct parcel-to-parcel interactions. The findings demonstrate that LC reshapes rather than eliminates inherited spatial value structures and highlight the importance of accounting for spatial dependence when evaluating rural land management interventions. Methodologically, the study provides a reproducible spatial econometric framework that can support more robust and equitable evaluations of LC programmes.
中文摘要
土地整理（LC）是一种被广泛采用的土地管理工具，旨在通过地块重组和减少土地细碎化来提高农业效率。然而，土地整理如何重塑土地价值的空间分布仍缺乏充分认识。本研究利用土耳其一个农业土地整理项目的地块级数据，考察整理后土地价值潜力（LVP）的空间决定因素。分析在一个空间计量经济学框架内检验地块紧凑度变化（ΔCI）、细碎化以及整理前LVP的影响。平均LVP从土地整理前的0.491上升至整理后的0.737，提升约50%。OLS残差表现出显著的空间自相关（Moran's I = 0.198，p < 0.001），证实传统回归并不充分。模型比较表明，空间误差模型（SEM）是最合适的设定（AIC=-510.51），说明整理后LVP主要受具有空间结构的语境因素影响，而非直接的地块间相互作用。研究结果表明，土地整理重塑而非消除了继承性的空间价值结构，并凸显了在评估农村土地管理干预措施时考虑空间依赖性的重要性。在方法上，本研究提供了一个可复现的空间计量经济学框架，可支持对土地整理项目进行更稳健且更公平的评估。