Econ Papers Daily / 研究评论
战略主权、社会运动与政治能动性：来自美以对伊朗军事行动的证据
Strategic sovereignty, social movements, and political agency: Evidence from the US-Israeli military campaign in Iran
摘要
Military intervention may be undertaken to weaken a hostile regime and strengthen the position of its opponents. This column argues that evidence from the 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran points to a different outcome: the strikes left total protest levels broadly unchanged but sharply reoriented mobilisation away from anti-government protest and toward pro-government activity. The findings suggest that overt foreign intervention can make sovereignty politically valuable to incumbent governments by making domestic opposition easier to portray as aligned with an external adversary.
中文摘要
军事干预可能被用来削弱敌对政权并增强其反对派的地位。本专栏认为，2026年美以对伊朗打击的证据指向了不同的结果：这些打击使总体抗议水平大体不变，但急剧地将动员从反政府抗议转向亲政府活动。研究结果表明，公开的外国干预可以通过使国内反对派更容易被描绘为与外部对手结盟，从而使主权在政治上对现任政府具有价值。