Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
达成协议：工资谈判冲击的叙事识别
Striking a Bargain: Narrative Identification of Wage Bargaining Shocks
摘要
Wage markup shocks, an important driver of business cycles, are hard to pin down. We quantify the importance of exogenous variation in wage bargaining power, one source of those shocks, from German minimum wage introduction episodes and strikes. This disciplines the impulse responses of unemployment and output, and sharpens inference for other variables, which behave consistently with predictions from search‐and‐matching models. We find that wage bargaining shocks meaningfully contribute to aggregate fluctuations in unemployment and inflation, exhibit substantial pass‐through to prices, and imply plausible dynamics for the vacancy rate, firms' profits, and the labor share.
中文摘要
工资加成冲击作为商业周期的重要驱动因素，难以精确界定。我们通过德国最低工资引入事件及罢工活动，量化了工资谈判能力外生变动——这一冲击来源之一——的重要性。这约束了失业率和产出的脉冲响应，并增强了对其他变量的推断精度，这些变量的表现与搜索匹配模型的预测一致。我们发现，工资谈判冲击对失业率和通胀的总体波动具有显著贡献，展现出对价格的大幅传导效应，并暗示了职位空缺率、企业利润及劳动份额的合理动态变化。