Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
主观生存预期与年金化决策
Subjective Survival Expectations and Annuitisation Decisions
摘要
This paper estimates a dynamic model of annuitisation in which individuals hold subjective survival beliefs that may differ from their actual mortality risk. I show that biased survival beliefs reduce annuitisation at retirement but generate additional annuity demand at older ages. Overall, individuals under-annuitise by 10.1% during retirement and delay the average age of annuitisation by 3.7 years relative to the objective benchmark. The average welfare loss resulting from biased survival beliefs is equivalent to 2.9% of retirement-age assets. About 31% of this loss is attributable to pessimism about survival, while the remaining 69% reflects misperceptions of how mortality risk increases with age. Counterfactual policy experiments suggest that subsidies for annuity purchases early in retirement financed by taxing later purchases would improve welfare.
中文摘要
本文估计了一个动态年金化模型，其中个体持有的主观生存信念可能与其实际死亡风险存在差异。我证明，偏差的生存信念会降低退休时的年金化程度，但在较高年龄段却会产生额外的年金需求。总体而言，个体在退休期间的年金化程度比客观基准低10.1%，并将平均年金化年龄推迟了3.7年。由偏差生存信念导致的平均福利损失相当于退休年龄资产的2.9%。其中约31%的损失归因于对生存的悲观态度，而其余69%则反映了对死亡风险随年龄增长方式的误解。反事实政策实验表明，通过征税后期年金购买来补贴退休早期年金购买的补贴政策将改善福利。