Econ Papers Daily / 研究评论
驯服原罪再探讨：基准驱动流动的作用
Taming original sin redux: The role of benchmark-driven flows
摘要
Emerging market capital flows remain highly sensitive to global shocks. This column analyses foreign investors in emerging market local-currency sovereign bonds depending on whether they are benchmarked to J.P. Morgan’s main local-currency government bond index or not. Benchmarked investors have increased their share of foreign holdings more than twofold over 2010–2025. Global push factors are strong determinants of benchmarked flows, whereas domestic pull factors determine non-benchmarked flows. Index design choices, such as country caps, can therefore materially affect flows to constituent countries.
中文摘要
新兴市场资本流动仍对全球冲击高度敏感。本专栏分析新兴市场本币主权债券的外国投资者，依据其是否以摩根大通主要本币政府债券指数为基准进行区分。2010—2025年间，基准投资者的外国持有份额增长逾两倍。全球推动因素是基准投资者资金流的强决定因素，而国内拉动因素决定非基准投资者资金流。因此，指数设计选择（如国家上限）可实质性影响流向成分国的资本流动。