Econ Papers Daily / 工作论文
关税错峰调整
Tariff Staggering
摘要
Using a panel of U.S. imports and customs duties at the HS 6-digit level, we document that in a typical quarter about 20 percent of tariffs rise, 20 percent fall, and 60 percent remain unchanged. Motivated by these facts, we develop a model of staggered tariff setting and embed it in a dynamic open-economy framework. Staggering changes the dynamics of the cross-sectional mean tariff, generating hump-shaped macroeconomic responses to tariff shocks. Staggering also overturns the Razin–Svensson trade- balance neutrality result for permanent tariff increases, because the gradual adjustment of the mean tariff creates an anticipation effect that induces agents to front-load net imports. Inherited tariff dispersion has first-order macroeconomic effects, allowing tariff harmonization to be studied with linear approximation methods. We find that eliminating tariff dispersion while holding the mean tariff unchanged has effects akin to a transitory tariff cut in an economy without staggering.
中文摘要
使用HS 6位编码层面的美国进口和关税面板数据，我们记录到在典型季度中，约20%的关税上升，20%下降，60%保持不变。受这些事实启发，我们构建了一个错峰设定关税的模型，并将其嵌入动态开放经济框架。错峰调整改变了横截面平均关税的动态，对关税冲击产生驼峰形的宏观经济反应。错峰调整还推翻了Razin–Svensson关于永久性关税提高的贸易平衡中性结果，因为平均关税的逐步调整产生了预期效应，诱导主体提前净进口。继承的关税离散度具有一阶宏观经济效应，使得关税协调可以用线性近似方法研究。我们发现，在保持平均关税不变的情况下消除关税离散度，其效果类似于在没有错峰调整的经济中进行临时性关税削减。