资本税负扭曲与资源错配：来自中国增值税改革的证据

摘要

While tax distortion on capital can significantly impact resource allocation in developing economies, credible causal evidence remains scarce. This study provides novel evidence by examining China’s 2009 value-added tax (VAT) reform, which allowed specific firms to deduct taxes on capital inputs, thereby mitigating distortions in the taxation of capital. Using firm-level tax return data from 2006 to 2015, we demonstrate that the reform enhanced the allocative efficiency of capital by reducing the dispersion in marginal revenue product of capital (MRPK) within industries. Our empirical results show that firms with high ex-ante MRPK experienced a 10.5% increase in physical capital and a 6.0% decrease in MRPK post-reform, relative to low-MRPK firms within the same industry. The effects were particularly pronounced among smaller firms and those with restricted access to debt, consistent with the reform alleviating binding financial constraints. At the supply-side margin, the reform’s misallocation-reducing effect was amplified in localities with greater access to banking services, consistent with local credit availability facilitating the translation of latent capital demand into actual investment. Moreover, the reform improved labor allocation through input complementarity and the alleviation of financial constraints. Our calibration exercise suggests that the reform increased the aggregate productivity of treated firms by 3.1–4.0%, with nonlinear approximations that account for cumulative dynamics yielding estimates of up to 7.8%. These findings highlight the importance of addressing tax distortions for efficient resource allocation in developing economies.