Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
技术过载？加速淘汰的宏观经济影响
Technology overload? macroeconomic implications of accelerated obsolescence
摘要
Since the mid-1990s computing revolution, the U.S. economy has exhibited several striking regularities. Labor productivity growth has slowed below its historical trend following a decade-long boom, while the labor share has declined. Computing technologies are characterized by rapid obsolescence, and U.S. data suggest that aggregate capital obsolescence has accelerated since their widespread adoption. I study the macroeconomic implications of this acceleration using an endogenous growth model in which the economy transitions to a new equilibrium with a higher obsolescence rate. As capital designs become obsolete sooner, the value of future payoffs to capital innovation initially falls. The economy responds with a temporary productivity boom driven by faster skill accumulation, which partially restores innovation profitability. Over time, however, efficient capital per efficient labor declines. Under factor complementarity, this scarcity depresses the labor share by raising flow profits accruing to capital designs relative to skills. Resources are redirected from skill creation toward short-lived capital innovation, ultimately slowing long-run growth. The calibrated model produces productivity and labor-share dynamics broadly consistent with the data, and the paper advances the obsolescence channel as one plausible account of these trends.
中文摘要
自20世纪90年代中期计算革命以来，美国经济呈现出若干显著规律性特征。在经历长达十年的繁荣期后，劳动生产率增速已放缓至历史趋势线以下，同时劳动收入份额持续下降。计算技术具有快速过时的特性，美国数据表明，自其广泛普及以来，总体资本过时速度已显著加快。本文通过构建内生增长模型研究这一加速现象对宏观经济的影响，在该模型中经济将向具有更高过时率的新均衡状态过渡。随着资本设计过时速度加快，资本创新未来收益的现值最初出现下降。经济通过技能积累加速形成暂时性生产率繁荣作为应对，这在一定程度上恢复了创新盈利能力。然而，单位有效劳动的有效资本存量随时间推移持续下降。在要素互补性条件下，这种稀缺性通过提高资本设计相对于技能所获得的流动利润，压低了劳动收入份额。资源从技能创造转向短寿命资本创新，最终导致长期增长放缓。校准模型产生的生产率与劳动份额动态与数据基本吻合，本文提出过时渠道作为解释这些趋势的合理机制之一。