Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
农业综合企业和用糖企业股票分析师每股收益预测的准确性
The Accuracy of Equity Analysts’ Earnings Per Share Forecasts of Agribusinesses and Sugar‐Using Firms
摘要
This study evaluates equity analysts’ earnings forecasts, comparing United States (U.S.) sugar‐using firms (SUF), and a selected group of agribusinesses (AGB). Aspects of U.S. sugar policy, reinitiated in 1982, help to ensure a reliable and predictable domestic supply of SUF's primary ingredient, sugar. U.S. sugar policy requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to generate publicly available sugar supply and demand forecasts through its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates ( WASDE ) report, introduced in 1992 and expanded in 2008 to include Mexican sugar forecasts. Therefore, we examined whether the reinitiation of U.S. sugar policy, the initiation of WASDE sugar forecasts, and the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for sugar trade benefited SUF by improving equity analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasting accuracy for these firms. This analysis, mainly based on difference‐in‐differences and event‐study regression, focused on EPS forecast accuracy from 1976 to 2025. Consistent with our hypothesis, we found that improvements in SUF EPS forecast accuracy were statistically associated with the reinitiation of U.S. sugar policy in 1982 and, to a lesser extent, with the implementation of the NAFTA sugar provision in 2008. More broadly, our analysis suggests that, given its role as a price‐ and supply‐stabilizer, U.S. sugar policy might have caused a structural shift in the U.S. sugar industry, providing a more predictable business environment, and that its legacy may remain present in the contemporary forecasting environment.
中文摘要
本研究评估了股票分析师的盈利预测，比较了美国（U.S.）用糖企业（SUF）与一组精选的农业综合企业（AGB）。美国糖业政策于1982年重新启动，其诸多方面有助于确保SUF主要原料——糖——的国内供应可靠且可预测。美国糖业政策要求美国农业部（USDA）通过其《世界农业供需估计》（WASDE）报告生成公开可得的糖供需预测，该报告于1992年推出，并于2008年扩展至纳入墨西哥糖预测。因此，我们考察了美国糖业政策的重新启动、WASDE糖预测的启动以及《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）糖贸易条款的实施，是否通过提高股票分析师对这些企业每股收益（EPS）的预测准确性而使SUF受益。本分析主要基于双重差分法和事件研究回归，聚焦于1976年至2025年间的EPS预测准确性。与我们的假设一致，我们发现SUF的EPS预测准确性提升在统计上与1982年美国糖业政策的重新启动相关，并在较小程度上与2008年NAFTA糖条款的实施相关。更广泛地说，我们的分析表明，鉴于美国糖业政策作为价格和供应稳定器的作用，它可能引发了美国糖业的结构性转变，提供了更可预测的经营环境，并且其影响可能仍存在于当代的预测环境中。