Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
2018年复合干旱和热浪期间农业景观简化对德国草原的因果效应
The causal effect of agricultural landscape simplification on Germany's grasslands during a compound drought and heatwave in 2018
摘要
Preserving ecosystem services, along with economic and environmental benefits, will require future landscape policies to identify and incorporate relevant landscape features. In this paper, we investigate the causal effect of agricultural landscape simplification on drought‐related grassland damages. We use a novel remote‐sensing product to measure spatial variations in unproductive grassland due to compound drought and heatwave events, and relate it to a landscape metric measuring agricultural land use heterogeneity. Our causal identification strategy employs a spatially explicit fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, leveraging Germany's former inner border as an exogenous predictor of agricultural landscape simplification intensity. We find that decreasing agricultural land use heterogeneity increases the share of grasslands rendered unproductive by the drought. Our results suggest that landscape simplification can undermine drought resistance by affecting water availability, decreasing grassland dry matter yields. Overall, this study emphasizes how landscape‐scale heterogeneity can increase ecosystem functionality and farm resilience. Further empirical research on landscape characteristics should enhance understanding of drought mechanisms to increase resistance across land use systems.
中文摘要
保护生态系统服务以及经济和环境效益，将要求未来的景观政策识别并纳入相关的景观特征。本文研究了农业景观简化对干旱相关草地损害的因果效应。我们使用一种新型遥感产品来测量复合干旱和热浪事件导致的非生产性草地的空间变化，并将其与衡量农业土地利用异质性的景观指标相关联。我们的因果识别策略采用空间显式的模糊回归断点设计，利用德国前内部边界作为农业景观简化强度的外生预测因子。我们发现，农业土地利用异质性的降低增加了因干旱而变得非生产性的草地比例。我们的结果表明，景观简化可能通过影响水资源可利用量、降低草地干物质产量，从而削弱抗旱能力。总体而言，本研究强调了景观尺度异质性如何能够增强生态系统功能和农场韧性。关于景观特征的进一步实证研究应增进对干旱机制的理解，以提高各土地利用系统的抗性。