Econ Papers Daily / 机构研究
中国综合征2.0：一次误诊？
The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?
摘要
China’s growing dominance in manufacturing exports is attracting widespread attention. However, existing explanations of China’s export exceptionalism and its consequences for developing countries suffer from three shortcomings. First, attributing China’s large and increasing share in manufacturing exports primarily to its industrial policy obscures more fundamental factors: the scale of its economy, the diversity of its provincial endowments, and the pace of its automation. Second, focusing on the low-skilled export dimension of China’s economic expansion overlooks its positive impact on growth and its heterogeneous effects on structural transformation in developing countries. Finally, blaming foreign industrial policies distracts attention from the often more damaging trade and investment restrictions imposed by developing countries themselves, many of which could be reformed unilaterally.
中文摘要
中国在制造业出口领域日益增强的主导地位正引起广泛关注。然而，现有关于中国出口例外论及其对发展中国家影响的解释存在三点不足。第一，将中国在制造业出口中庞大且不断上升的份额主要归因于其产业政策，掩盖了更为根本的因素：其经济规模、各省资源禀赋的多样性以及自动化推进的速度。第二，仅关注中国经济扩张中的低技能出口维度，忽视了其对增长的积极影响以及对发展中国家结构转型的异质性效应。最后，将问题归咎于他国产业政策，转移了人们对发展中国家自身往往更具破坏性的贸易和投资限制的关注，而其中许多限制本可通过单边方式加以改革。