Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
国际商务中的数据革命及其应用
The Data Revolution, and Its Uses, in International Trade
摘要
In recent decades, economists studying international trade have gained access to an unprecedented volume and variety of data. These data have provided new insights and a more granular understanding of the mechanics of trade. Analyzing a large corpus of papers, we document that the nature of research has also shifted. Previously, the typical trade paper was either purely theoretical or an empirical paper testing theoretical predictions. More recently, scholarship has shifted toward a more integrated approach, particularly quantitative modeling. This development is surprising. We might have expected the data revolution (and contemporaneous credibility revolution) to increase the share of primarily empirical papers—although the markers of these revolutions are clearly evident in the rise of causal inference within empirical work. This article reviews these developments, assessing the strengths and limitations of different modes of inquiry, and plotting a path forward to harness the growing richness of data within the field.
中文摘要
近几十年来，研究国际贸易的经济学家获得了前所未有的数据量和数据种类。这些数据为理解贸易机制提供了新的洞见和更为细致的认识。通过分析大量文献，我们记录到研究的性质也发生了变化。以往，典型的贸易论文要么是纯理论性的，要么是检验理论预测的实证论文。而近年来，学术研究已转向一种更为整合的方法，尤其是定量建模。这一发展令人意外。我们原本可能预期数据革命（以及同时发生的可信性革命）会提高以实证为主的论文比例——尽管这些革命的标志在实证工作中因果推断的兴起中清晰可见。本文回顾了这些发展，评估了不同探究模式的优势与局限，并规划了前进路径，以在贸易领域内利用日益丰富的数据。