Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
美元的主导地位：特权还是灾难？
The Dominance of the Dollar: A Privilege or A Catastrophe?
摘要
We present a model to analyze the impact of the use of the US Dollar (dominant currency) in EMEs, which increases the possibility of currency crises in these economies. The USD's worldwide dominance is a privilege that extends far beyond the borders of the US, facilitating international trade and finance. As the globally held reserve currency, the USD allows nations across the globe to make secure and efficient investments. Paradoxically, widespread reliance on the USD can nonetheless increase the likelihood of currency crises in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), as these countries may fail to accumulate sufficient USD reserves to meet the rising global demand for USD from households and investors. Further, the paper also attempts to outline how the prominent use of dominant currency escalates the spread of currency crises to other EMEs through contagion effect resulting from changes in investors' expectations.
中文摘要
我们构建了一个模型，用以分析在新兴市场经济体中使用美元（主导货币）的影响，这种使用增加了这些经济体发生货币危机的可能性。美元在全球范围内的主导地位是一种远超美国边界的特权，它促进了国际贸易与金融。作为全球持有的储备货币，美元使世界各国能够进行安全高效的投资。然而，矛盾的是，对美元的广泛依赖仍可能增加新兴市场经济体发生货币危机的可能性，因为这些国家可能无法积累足够的美元储备，以满足家庭和投资者不断增长的全球美元需求。此外，本文还试图概述主导货币的突出使用如何通过投资者预期变化所产生的传染效应，加剧货币危机向其他新兴市场经济体的蔓延。