Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
金融资源对生育率的影响：基于彩票中奖者行政数据的证据
The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners
摘要
This paper utilizes wealth shocks from winning lottery prizes to examine the causal effect of financial resources on fertility. We employ extensive panels of administrative data encompassing over 0.4 million lottery winners in Taiwan and implement a triple-differences design. Our analyses reveal that a substantial lottery win can significantly increase fertility, the implied wealth elasticity of which is around 0.06. Moreover, the primary channel through which fertility increases is by prompting first births among previously childless individuals. Finally, our analysis reveals that approximately 25% of the total fertility effect stems from increased marriage rates following a lottery win.
中文摘要
本文利用中奖彩票带来的财富冲击，考察金融资源对生育率的因果效应。我们采用涵盖台湾地区超过40万彩票中奖者的广泛行政数据面板，并实施三重差分设计。分析表明，大额彩票中奖能显著提高生育率，其隐含的财富弹性约为0.06。此外，生育率提升的主要渠道是促使此前无子女的个体生育头胎。最后，我们的分析揭示，约25%的总生育效应源于中奖后结婚率的上升。