Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
低技能移民限制对美国企业与工人的影响：来自随机抽签的证据
The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
摘要
US firms hiring foreign workers in low-skill nonfarm jobs face a binding quota on the “H-2B” visa, allocated in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the quota’s marginal impact using the lottery, a novel firm survey, and a pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously employing more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs increase production (elasticity 0.20–0.22), investment (1.5–2.1), and profits (0.15). The elasticity of substitution between H-2B and US workers is very low (0.8–2.2). Thus, the effect on US employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor. (JEL J15, J24, J46, J61, J82, K37)
中文摘要
美国企业在低技能非农岗位雇佣外籍工人时，面临“H-2B”签证的约束性配额，该配额部分通过随机抽签分配。我们利用抽签机制、一项新颖的企业调查以及预分析计划，评估了该配额的边际影响。在低技能岗位中因外生因素雇佣更多H-2B工人的企业，其产量（弹性0.20–0.22）、投资（1.5–2.1）和利润（0.15）均有所提升。H-2B工人与美国工人之间的替代弹性极低（0.8–2.2）。因此，该配额对美国就业的整体影响为零或为正，且在乡村地区呈现正向效应。法证分析表明，黑市劳动力的可替代性同样较低。（JEL J15, J24, J46, J61, J82, K37）