Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
保障性收入对就业的影响：来自美国两州的实验证据
The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States
摘要
We study the causal impacts of income on a rich array of employment outcomes, leveraging an experiment in which 1,000 low-income individuals were randomized into receiving $1,000 per month unconditionally for three years, with a control group of 2,000 participants receiving $50/month. We gather detailed survey data, administrative records, and data from a mobile phone app. The transfer caused total individual income excluding the transfers to fall by about $1,900/year relative to the control group and a 4.2 percentage point decrease in labor market participation. Participants reduced their work hours as a result of the transfers by 1-2 hours/week and participants’ partners reduced their work hours by a comparable amount. Among other categories of time use, the greatest increase generated by the transfer was in time spent on leisure. Despite asking detailed questions about amenities, we find no impact on quality of employment, and our confidence intervals can rule out even small improvements. Treated participants broadly increase expenditures, led by spending on non-durable goods and services, with smaller increases in spending on durable goods and human capital. We observe no significant effects on degree attainment, though the magnitudes of the estimated effects generally appear larger among younger participants. Measures of subjective well-being are higher among treated participants in the first year of the transfers but then revert to control group levels. Overall, our results suggest a moderate labor supply effect that does not appear offset by other productive activities.
中文摘要
我们研究收入对一系列就业结果的因果影响，利用了一项实验，其中1000名低收入个体被随机分配为每月无条件获得1000美元，为期三年，对照组2000名参与者每月获得50美元。我们收集了详细的调查数据、行政记录以及手机应用数据。转移支付导致除转移外个人总收入相对于对照组每年下降约1900美元，劳动力市场参与率下降4.2个百分点。参与者因转移支付而减少工作时间每周1-2小时，且参与者的伴侣也减少了相当数量的工作时间。在其他时间使用类别中，转移支付带来的最大增加是休闲时间。尽管我们询问了关于工作条件的详细问题，但未发现对就业质量的影响，且我们的置信区间可以排除即使是微小的改善。受助参与者总体上增加了支出，主要由非耐用品和服务支出带动，耐用品和人力资本支出增加较小。我们未观察到对学位获得的显著影响，尽管估计效应的大小在年轻参与者中通常显得更大。在转移支付的第一年，受助参与者的主观幸福感指标较高，但随后恢复到对照组水平。总体而言，我们的结果表明存在适度的劳动力供给效应，且这一效应并未被其他生产性活动所抵消。