Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
信息通信技术投资的就业效应：来自中国的证据
The employment effects of ICT investment: evidence from China
摘要
This paper investigates the employment effects of information and communication technology (ICT) investment across 336 Chinese regions from 2010 to 2020, employing a Bartik instrument. Results reveal that ICT investment significantly promotes overall employment growth. Although hardware-specific ICT investment exerts a substitution effect on manufacturing employment, the subsequent efficiency gains in the manufacturing sector stimulate demand expansion in downstream service industries, driving net job creation. Furthermore, the employment gains are primarily concentrated among middle-skilled workers and in regions with a higher exposure to non-routine tasks. Spatially, ICT investment generates positive spillovers for geographically proximate areas, while exerting negative spillovers on regions with similar economic scales. These findings underscore the positive contribution of ICT investment to China’s employment growth over the past decade, highlighting a distinct pattern from that observed in developed economies.
中文摘要
本文使用Bartik工具变量，考察了2010年至2020年间中国336个地区的信息与通信技术（ICT）投资的就业效应。结果表明，ICT投资显著促进了整体就业增长。尽管硬件类ICT投资对制造业就业产生替代效应，但制造业部门随之而来的效率提升刺激了下游服务业的需求扩张，从而推动了净就业创造。此外，就业增长主要集中在中等技能劳动者以及非routine任务暴露程度较高的地区。在空间上，ICT投资对地理邻近地区产生正向溢出效应，而对经济规模相似的地区则产生负向溢出效应。这些发现凸显了ICT投资在过去十年对中国就业增长的积极贡献，并揭示出与发达经济体所观察到的不同模式。