The energy security paradox of technology innovation in the energy transition

摘要

Technological innovation is an important pillar of energy security (ES). However, systematic evidence remains limited on how different technological pathways are associated with multidimensional ES. Using data from 51 countries over the period 2000-2023, this study applies the global entropy weighting method to construct a four-dimensional ES covering supply, economic, environmental, and social security. It further develops indicators for nine energy technology fields and employs the XGBoost–SHAP approach to examine their relative contributions, directions of association, stage-dependent changes, and interaction structures. The results show that, first, ES generally improves across countries, although no synchronous convergence emerges. Second, Fossil fuel technologies (FF), Renewable energy technologies (RES), and Heat and power generation, storage, and supply technologies (HPGSS) make the largest predictive contributions, while the direction of their SHAP contributions changes across different stages. Third, the technology interaction network centres on FF, with particularly strong interactions involving Nuclear fission and fusion technologies (NFF) and Critical minerals (CM). Fourth, technology priorities vary markedly across security dimensions. Supply security is characterised by broad multi-technology support centred on FF; economic security is primarily associated with FF, Hydrogen, hydrogen-based fuels, and fuel cell technologies (HHBFC), and HPGSS; environmental security is more strongly associated with NFF, HHBFC, and CM; and EEU has the largest predictive contribution to social-security predictions. These findings suggest that energy innovation policy should move beyond simply expanding the overall scale of innovation and instead optimise technology portfolios according to ES vulnerabilities, stages of technological development, and supporting conditions.