Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
好主意困境
The Good Idea Dilemma
摘要
Once a good idea comes to mind, it is hard to avoid wondering why no one else has already taken advantage of it. Is it because the idea is not as good as it initially appears? This concern gives rise to a dilemma over whether to pursue the idea or abandon it despite its apparent promise, a dilemma we call “the good idea dilemma”. Paradoxically, the more compelling an idea appears, the more puzzling it becomes that others have not exploited it, thereby deepening the dilemma. We study this dilemma in a continuous-time game with multiple players, analyzing idea adoption dynamics and their economic implications. The dilemma yields both under-implementation of good ideas and over-implementation of bad ideas. Its adverse consequences equally affect trivial ideas that arise frequently and creative ideas that rarely do, but intensify for ideas accessible to larger audiences or with riskier outcomes, even under risk neutrality.
中文摘要
一旦一个好主意浮现于脑海，便不禁会想，为何其他人未曾加以利用。是因为这个主意并不像最初看起来那么好？这种担忧引发了是否要追求该主意还是尽管其表面前景可观却将其放弃的两难困境，我们将这一困境称为“好主意困境”。悖论式地，一个主意看起来越有说服力，其他人未曾利用它就越令人费解，从而加深了这一困境。我们在一个多参与者的连续时间博弈中研究这一困境，分析主意采纳的动态及其经济含义。该困境既导致好主意实施不足，也导致坏主意过度实施。其不利后果同样影响频繁出现的琐碎主意和鲜少出现的创造性主意，但对于可触及更广泛受众或结果风险更高的主意则会加剧，即使在风险中性条件下也是如此。