2022年能源危机对德国家庭供暖的影响——能源相关概念的实证前后对比研究

摘要

Disruptive events are shocks that exceed a system's absorption capacity, temporarily or permanently disrupting technical, economic, and social routines. The 2022 energy crisis, triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, subjected German households to skyrocketing energy prices in the presence of a surge in general inflation. We examine short-term adjustments across daily heating-related energy behavior, structural efficiency investment intentions, and multi-layered energy poverty by drawing on a survey study that was conducted among German households immediately before (Wave 1) and 10 months after (Wave 2) the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In contrast to standard economic expectations, we find minimal daily adjustments, and the perceived need to replace heating systems remained unchanged, though a qualitative shift toward renewables emerged. At the same time, while we do not find significant differences in expenditure-based energy poverty indicators, our consensual indicators reveal a significant increase in energy poverty rates across both waves. These findings are discussed in light of the specific institutional context, structural conditions, and time-specific peculiarities in Germany. Methodologically, we contribute to the energy poverty literature by demonstrating the operational advantages of subjective consensual indicators that overcome missing data and recall problems inherent in expenditure-based operationalizations. These findings highlight a critical trade-off in crisis-related energy policy. While broad-based financial relief reduces households' burden, it suppresses the price signals needed for behavioral or structural transformation. Effective policymaking must therefore combine immediate, targeted support for newly vulnerable groups with long-term structural measures to overcome entrenched domestic routines.