Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
20世纪欧亚大陆的工业地理：苏联规划者与沙俄基础的相遇
The industrial geography of Eurasia in the 20th century: Soviet planners meet Tsarist fundamentals
摘要
How responsive is the location of economic activity to shocks? This paper uses a new data set on the location of factories in the Russian Empire (1890, 1908) and the Soviet Union (1989), supported by modern nightlight data, to explore the forces determining the spatial location of industrial production in Eurasia over the long twentieth century. Over this period, the region experienced a radical shift in its economic system from market to central planning and back again. Production was also subjected to various shocks, including war and the associated relocation of firms, forced population movement, and infrastructure investments. We assess to what extent these shocks changed the role of agglomeration effects, local labour inputs and market access in determining industry location. We find that shocks to labour fundamentals shifted the economy to new spatial equilibria. Nonetheless, the shifts were small in magnitude and these forces were not powerful enough to eradicate the path-dependent effects of Tsarist locations that were still evident in the industrial structure of the region even a century later. These results suggest the impact of even severe shocks to a spatial equilibrium to be modest at the aggregate level.
中文摘要
经济活动的区位对冲击的响应程度如何？本文利用关于俄罗斯帝国（1890年、1908年）和苏联（1989年）工厂区位的新数据集，并以现代夜间灯光数据为支撑，探讨在漫长的20世纪中决定欧亚大陆工业生产空间区位的力量。在此期间，该地区的经济体制经历了从市场到中央计划再回到市场的根本性转变。生产还受到各种冲击的影响，包括战争及相关的企业迁移、强制人口流动和基础设施投资。我们评估这些冲击在多大程度上改变了集聚效应、本地劳动投入和市场准入在决定产业区位中的作用。我们发现，对劳动基本面的冲击使经济转向新的空间均衡。尽管如此，这些转变幅度较小，且这些力量不足以消除沙皇时期区位的路径依赖效应——即使在一个世纪之后，这种效应在该地区的工业结构中仍然显而易见。这些结果表明，即使是对空间均衡的严重冲击，其总体层面的影响也是温和的。