Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
信念更新中的推断-预测差距
The Inference‐Forecast Gap in Belief Updating
摘要
Evidence from the laboratory and the field has uncovered both underreaction and overreaction to new information. We provide new experimental evidence on the underlying mechanisms of under‐ and overreaction by comparing how people make inferences and revise forecasts in the same information environment. Participants underreact to signals when inferring about underlying states, but overreact to the same signals when revising forecasts about future outcomes—a phenomenon we term “the inference‐forecast gap.” We show that this gap is largely driven by different simplifying heuristics used in the two tasks. Additional treatments suggest that the choice of heuristics is affected by the similarity between statistics in the information environment and the statistic elicited by the belief‐updating problem.
中文摘要
来自实验室和现场的证据揭示了人们对新信息既存在反应不足也存在反应过度。我们通过比较人们在相同信息环境下如何进行推断和修正预测，提供了关于反应不足与反应过度内在机制的新实验证据。参与者在推断潜在状态时对信号反应不足，但在修正对未来结果的预测时却对相同信号反应过度——我们将这一现象称为“推断-预测差距”。研究表明，这一差距主要由两项任务中使用的不同简化启发式策略驱动。额外实验处理表明，启发式策略的选择受到信息环境中的统计量与信念更新问题所引发的统计量之间相似性的影响。