Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
失踪女性对婚姻与生育的长期影响
The long shadow of missing women on marriage and fertility
摘要
Replication package for "The Long Shadow of Missing Women on Marriage and Fertility" (Sunha Myong), Economic Modelling. HYPOTHESIS. Sex-selective abortion in South Korea in the 1980s and early 1990s raised the sex ratio at birth from about 1.05 to about 1.15. The hypothesis is that this reduces marriage and, through marriage, fertility with a lag of roughly three decades, as the affected cohorts reach prime marriage age. DATA. Three Statistics Korea microdata products from the Microdata Integrated Service (MDIS, mdis.mods.go.kr): Census 2% samples 2000-2020, marriage registers (B-type) 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, and the 2020 birth register. All three are public-use files, downloadable directly by any registered MDIS account without application, approval or fee. Also WDI, UN WPP 2024 and KOSIS tables. Individuals fall into 24 types by education, age band and capital region; the estimation uses, per vintage, the 24x24 matrix of marriages by (husband, wife) type, never-married counts and the implied Choo-Siow surplus. These are included in full. SYNTHETIC DATA. The MDIS licence does not permit redistribution, so the three files are not included; DATA_AVAILABILITY.md documents the download procedure and variable selection. Synthetic replacements are provided instead: artificial records generated to reproduce a dataset's structure while containing none of its records. Each variable was regenerated from a one-way frequency table, so a replacement matches its original in file name, variable names, observation count, missing counts and every distribution. Variables are drawn independently, so each marginal distribution is exact and the joint structure is not. In the 2021 register 78% of college-educated husbands have a college-educated wife; in the synthetic file the figure is 58%, the value implied by independence. That sorting is the object of the estimation; a synthetic run establishes only that the code executes. FINDINGS. Restoring the women missing from the 1980-1995 cohorts, relative to a natural sex ratio of 1.050, raises the 2021 female marriage-market stock by 5.53% and lowers the market sex ratio from 1.243 to 1.178. Re-solving the equilibrium with the surplus held fixed yields 5,008 additional marriages, 3.23% of the 154,890 observed in 2021, and about 8,500 additional births, 3.3% of the 2021 total. The effect is lagged and increasing: 0.86% in 2006, 1.35% in 2011, 2.28% in 2016, 3.23% in 2021. College-educated women aged 25-34 are 42.4% of the restored stock and 74.5% of new marriages. USE. The counterfactual is partial equilibrium: stocks vary while the surplus is held at baseline. Stage 1 (Stata) constructs the 24-type matrices from the microdata; stage 2 (MATLAB) estimates the surplus, solves the counterfactual and produces every table and figure. Because the matrices are included, stage 2 reproduces every published result without microdata. README.md documents the procedure, software versions and exhibit-to-script mapping.
中文摘要
本文考察韩国出生性别比失衡的长期后果。20世纪80年代及90年代初的性别选择性堕胎造成了女性持续短缺。本文运用婚姻市场的经济模型，结合人口普查与婚姻数据，量化了若恢复这些缺失女性将如何重塑韩国的婚姻与生育。在反事实情形下，2021年婚姻市场中的女性人口增加5.5%，带来约5000桩额外婚姻，使韩国2021年婚姻数量增加3.2%。这些婚姻转化为2021年婚姻队列中8500例额外终生生育，其规模相当于韩国2021年全国出生人口的3.3%。上述效应集中于年轻且受过大学教育的人群。过去的性别选择性堕胎强加了一个结构性生育下限，任何鼓励生育政策都无法抵消——中国、印度和越南也面临这一约束。弥合当今的性别比失衡将促进下一代的婚姻与生育。