中国经济波动的网络起源：企业层面证据

摘要

This paper studies how production and supply chain networks shape output growth fluctuations in China. Using a large-scale firm-level supply chain network dataset and conventional input–output tables, we show that higher network centrality is associated with larger output fluctuations, while greater network symmetry is associated with lower volatility. More productive and export-oriented firms or sectors tend to fluctuate less. A quantitative exercise further suggests that observed network heterogeneity can amplify micro-level disturbances into aggregate growth volatility, generating non-normal aggregate outcomes even from light-tailed micro shocks.