通往高质量增长之路：出口生产性服务业增长驱动模式的比较分析

摘要

This paper examines whether producer services exports improve productivity and how this effect varies across development stages. Using a panel of 156 economies over the 2006–2024 regression period, we measure productivity change with the Global Malmquist TFP index and classify economies by World Bank income status. The results show that producer services exports do not uniformly raise productivity. The positive TFP effect is concentrated in upper-middle-income economies, while the estimates for low-income, lower-middle-income, and high-income economies are less robust. This pattern is supported by shift-share IV estimates, dynamic panel specifications, alternative TFP measures, and threshold tests. Mechanism results indicate that lower-middle-income economies mainly obtain scale-efficiency gains, upper-middle-income economies benefit through technical-efficiency gains associated with resource reallocation, and high-income economies gain primarily through technological progress. These findings suggest that producer-services-led growth depends on domestic capabilities and development stage, with direct implications for how developing and post-transition economies participate in international production networks.