Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
战争的成本：重新计算太平洋战争时期秘鲁的通货膨胀
The price of war: Recalculating inflation in Peru during the Pacific War era
摘要
This study reassesses Peru’s inflation dynamics during the Pacific War by incorporating alternative exchange rate methodologies that account for the widespread use of paper currency (sol en billete) in domestic transactions. Using archival sources from Lima’s principal newspapers and government documents, combined with price series from Seminario (2016) and Boloña (1993), this analysis reveals that conventional silver-based exchange rate assumptions systematically underestimated wartime inflation. The recalibrated methodology shows inflation peaking at nearly 180 percent during the war’s most intense phase, contrasting dramatically with previous silver-based estimates suggesting price stability. Contemporary currency spread evidence demonstrates the sol en billete depreciating over 1000 percent relative to silver currency between 1879–1880, validating the magnitude of monetary instability captured in our reconstruction. These findings position the Pacific War as one of Peru’s most severe inflationary episodes, averaging over 30 percent annually during the conflict period, rather than the mild deflation suggested by conventional approaches. This historical perspective reveals Peru’s modern era (1997–2025) as its longest period of monetary stability in over three centuries. The corrected estimates align with broader patterns of wartime monetary instability across Latin America while demonstrating how exchange rate methodology choices fundamentally alter historical narratives. This framework offers broader applicability for reassessing historical inflation in dual-currency environments during institutional transitions.
中文摘要
本研究通过纳入替代性汇率方法，重新评估了太平洋战争期间秘鲁的通胀动态，这些方法考虑了纸币（索尔纸币）在国内交易中的广泛使用。利用利马主要报纸和政府文件的档案资料，并结合Seminario（2016）和Boloña（1993）的价格序列，本分析揭示，基于白银的传统汇率假设系统性地低估了战时通胀。重新校准的方法显示，在战争最激烈阶段，通胀率峰值接近180%，与先前基于白银的估计所暗示的价格稳定形成鲜明对比。当代货币价差证据表明，1879年至1880年间，索尔纸币相对于白银货币贬值超过1000%，验证了本重建所捕捉的货币不稳定程度的规模。这些发现将太平洋战争定位为秘鲁最严重的通胀事件之一，战争期间年均通胀率超过30%，而非传统方法所暗示的温和通缩。这一历史视角揭示，秘鲁现代时期（1997—2025年）是其三个多世纪以来最长的货币稳定期。修正后的估计与拉丁美洲战时货币不稳定的更广泛模式相一致，同时展示了汇率方法选择如何从根本上改变历史叙事。该框架为在制度转型期间重新评估双货币环境中的历史通胀提供了更广泛的适用性。