Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
银行资本与家庭债务的盈利能力
The profitability of bank capital and household debt
摘要
This paper examines the conditions under which the profitability of banking capital can exceed that of industrial capital. In a benchmark scenario where banks extend credit only to industrial firms, the industrial sector dominates in terms of return on equity unless two conditions are jointly satisfied: financial intermediation costs must be sufficiently low, and the industrial sector’s leverage must be sufficiently high. The analysis is then extended to a more realistic environment in which banks also lend to households, who finance large expenditures—such as housing, vehicles, and education—through bank credit. In this setting, the return on bank equity can exceed that of industrial capital whenever the flow of household interest payments is sufficiently large, even if bank funding costs remain high or industrial leverage is modest. Thus, household debt service can constitute an additional and potentially important source of bank profitability relative to the industrial sector. Using U.S. quarterly data for 1984–2020, an ARDL bounds test provides empirical support for cointegration between the bank–industry profitability differential and aggregate household debt-service payments.
中文摘要
本文考察银行资本利润率超过产业资本利润率的条件。在银行仅向产业企业发放信贷的基准情形中，除非两个条件同时满足，否则产业部门在净资产收益率上占优：金融中介成本必须足够低，且产业部门杠杆率必须足够高。随后，分析被扩展到一个更现实的环境，其中银行也向家庭放贷，家庭通过银行信贷为住房、汽车和教育等大额支出融资。在这一情形下，只要家庭利息支付流足够大，即使银行融资成本仍然较高或产业杠杆率适中，银行净资产收益率也可能超过产业资本收益率。因此，相对于产业部门，家庭偿债可以构成银行盈利能力的额外且可能重要的来源。使用1984—2020年美国季度数据，ARDL边界检验为银行—产业利润率差与家庭偿债总支付之间的协整关系提供了经验支持。