Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
实际汇率错位与结构变迁：发展渠道的考察
The Real Exchange Misalignment and Structural Change: Examining the Development Channel
摘要
This paper examines the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) misalignment and structural change—the reallocation of labor from low‐ to high‐productivity sectors—recognized as a key mechanism of economic development and growth. Using industry‐level data from multiple sources covering up to 153 countries over 1970–2017, and employing alternative measures of both RER misalignment and structural change, we assess whether RER undervaluation promotes sectoral transformation and long‐run growth. The results indicate that while RER undervaluation is associated with higher aggregate economic growth, especially in developing economies, its effect on structural change is neither robust nor statistically significant across specifications, datasets, misalignment measures, or medium‐ and long‐run. Similarly, persistent undervaluation and overvaluation episodes yield no consistent impact. We confirm these results when we divide the sample into developed and developing country groups. These findings suggest that the growth‐enhancing effects of exchange rate undervaluation may operate through channels other than structural transformation, calling for a reassessment of the mechanisms linking exchange rate policy to long‐run development.
中文摘要
本文考察了实际汇率（RER）错位与结构变迁——即劳动力从低生产率部门向高生产率部门重新配置，这一被视为经济发展与增长关键机制的过程——之间的关系。我们使用来自多个来源、覆盖1970—2017年间多达153个国家的行业层面数据，并采用实际汇率错位与结构变迁的多种替代性度量方法，评估实际汇率低估是否促进部门转型与长期增长。结果表明，尽管实际汇率低估与更高的总体经济增长相关，尤其是在发展中经济体中，但其对结构变迁的影响在不同设定、数据集、错位度量方法以及中期和长期中既不稳健，也不具有统计显著性。同样，持续低估与持续高估的情形也未产生一致影响。当我们将样本划分为发达国家组和发展中国家组时，这些结果得到确认。这些发现表明，汇率低估的增长促进效应可能通过结构转型以外的渠道发挥作用，因而有必要重新评估将汇率政策与长期发展联系起来的机制。