Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
美国经济与天气条件对农民自杀的影响
The Role of Economic and Weather Conditions in Farmer Suicide in the United States
摘要
Farmers commit suicide at high rates relative to the general population in the United States and elsewhere. Prior studies on farmer suicide have generally focused on socio‐demographic characteristics of individuals and on method of suicide, but few quantitative analyses have sought to understand the possible role of economic and climatic factors as determinants of suicide among farmers. This study addresses this void. We develop an economic model to show how poor economic outcomes or adverse weather conditions can reduce current‐period utility and diminish expectations of future utility through accumulation of debt and formation of expectations of future economic and climatic conditions, with suicide resulting in extreme cases. Our empirical analysis merges CDC nonpublic vital statistics, PRISM daily weather data, and USDA NASS crop and livestock price data into a county‐year panel to estimate the relationship between weather variables, economic factors, and farmer suicides. Results based upon a Poisson regression model show that long‐term, not transitory, poor economic conditions are associated with higher rates of farmer suicide. Extreme heat is also associated with increased farmer suicide, especially in counties most reliant upon animal agriculture. Precipitation appears to play little role in U.S. farmer suicide.
中文摘要
美国及其他地区的农民自杀率显著高于普通人群。此前关于农民自杀的研究多聚焦于个体社会人口学特征及自杀方式，但鲜有定量分析探讨经济和气候因素作为农民自杀决定因素的潜在作用。本研究填补了这一空白。我们构建了一个经济模型，论证了不良经济结果或恶劣天气如何通过债务累积及对未来经济和气候条件的预期形成，降低当期效用并削弱未来效用预期，极端情况下导致自杀。实证分析整合了美国疾病控制与预防中心非公开生命统计数据、PRISM逐日天气数据及美国农业部国家农业统计局作物与牲畜价格数据，构建县级年度面板数据，以估计气候变量、经济因素与农民自杀之间的关系。基于泊松回归模型的结果表明，长期（而非暂时性）经济状况恶化与农民自杀率上升相关。极端高温同样与农民自杀增加相关，尤其在畜牧业依赖度最高的县。降水量对美国农民自杀的影响似乎微乎其微。