Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
住房财富份额与实际利率下降
The share of housing wealth and the decline in real interest rates
摘要
The share of housing in private wealth has risen substantially across advanced economies over recent decades, alongside a near doubling of aggregate wealth‐to‐income ratios. On closer inspection, this global trend masks substantial regional disparities. While the housing wealth share changed little in the USA, it increased sharply in the larger European economies. This paper asks whether a standard asset‐pricing framework can account for these facts in light of the secular decline in interest rates. Comparing steady states calibrated to 1980 and 2017, I show that lower discount rates raise aggregate wealth only modestly, and leave the housing share essentially unchanged, because they capitalize housing and non‐housing income streams in roughly equal proportion. Matching the data requires two further mechanisms: an increase in markups, which lifts firm valuations through the present value of monopoly profits, and the presence of outright owners, which makes aggregate housing wealth more sensitive to house‐price increases by limiting offsetting quantity adjustments. Closed‐form expressions and a numerical calibration show that the interaction of these channels can reproduce both the global rise in the housing share and the USA–Europe divergence: in the USA, rising markups dominate, whereas in Europe, the expansion of outright ownership plays the central role.
中文摘要
近几十年来，在发达经济体中，住房在私人财富中的份额大幅上升，同时总财富与收入之比几乎翻了一番。进一步审视会发现，这一全球趋势掩盖了巨大的区域差异。美国的住房财富份额变化甚微，而欧洲较大经济体的住房财富份额则急剧上升。本文追问，在利率长期下行的背景下，标准资产定价框架能否解释这些事实。通过比较分别校准至1980年和2017年的稳态，我表明，较低的贴现率只会温和地提高总财富，并使住房份额基本保持不变，因为它们大致按相同比例将住房收入流和非住房收入流资本化。要匹配数据，还需要两个进一步的机制：加成率的上升，这通过垄断利润的现值抬高企业估值；以及完全产权自住者的存在，这通过限制抵消性的数量调整，使总住房财富对房价上涨更为敏感。闭式表达式和数值校准表明，这些渠道的相互作用既能再现全球住房份额的上升，也能再现美国与欧洲之间的分化：在美国，上升的加成率起主导作用，而在欧洲，完全产权自住者群体的扩大发挥核心作用。